Thorp Count and Kleinman Ratio
Position Evaluation and Statistics
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Thorp Count is a measurement based on a formula by Edward O. Thorp for making doubling decisions in pure race games. It is a modified pip count which also takes into account some elements of checker distribution. Each player's Thorp count equals their pip count plus 2 for each of the checkers still on the board, minus 1 for each the occupied home board points, plus 1 for each checker on the first point. The player on roll increases this count by 10 percent if it is more than 30.
Double any time your count does not exceed the opponent's by more than 2.
Redouble any time your count does not exceed opponent's by more than 1.
Accept if your count does not exceed doubler's by more than 2.
The Kleinman Ratio -- accurate for long races -- estimates the probability to win based on the Normal Distribution.
0.39 means that the side on turn would win 39% of the games and would lose 61%.